Saturday, November 22, 2014

Not enough subs to do what?


(Best buddies. So what's the big deal? Australian PM Abbott
and Russia's Putin a few days ago.)



Which goes back to what I have stated in the past. Instead of going for a handful of gold-plated replacements for the Collins-class, best to have higher number of smaller, affordable subs. How many German 214s could we buy with $20B? How many French subs?


Russian ships expose failings of Australian submarine operations

Australia was unable to send a submarine to monitor a fleet of Russian warships in the Coral Sea during the G20 meeting because all of its available boats were on the other side of the country.

The predicament robbed the navy of a chance to gather valuable intelligence against the Russian flotilla and will increase pressure on the federal government to consider a new submarine base on the east coast in the forthcoming defence white paper.

It also meant the navy could not ascertain for certain whether a Russian nuclear submarine was accompanying the four Russian ships as they sailed off northern Australia in a show of force designed to coincide with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Brisbane for the G20 meeting.

So in any event, the Australian public generously hand over billions for Defence--last budget $29B. For a population of around 24 million. Where the workforce is much smaller.

All. For what?


The submarine HMAS Rankin was in transit from Albany in Western Australia to Hobart, where it arrived this week, while the navy’s two other operational submarines were conducting work-up trials in the waters off Perth, thousands of kilometres from the Russian flotilla.

The remaining three submarines in the fleet were in various stages of maintenance in Adelaide and Perth. US warships also monitored the Russian flotilla near Japan as it headed south towards Australia.

Sources say an Australian submarine could have been sent to monitor the Russians if there had been a submarine base on the east coast — an option which has been examined by navy but not adopted by the government. The 2012 Force Posture Review written by former defence secretaries Ric Smith and Allan Hawke said the navy was studying options for an east coast submarine base to supplement Fleet Base West near Fremantle in Western Australia where all six Collins-class submarines are now based.

The current DM said that 12 probably would not be the replacement number for the Collins. 6? Maybe. And then...the exact same problem mentioned above.


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Stop the nonsense

What is available at a reasonable cost and schedule?
Spanish Sub: weight, design problems. Swedish Sub: Industry uncertain. Japanese Sub: configuration significantly uncertain. German Sub: stable design / production. French Sub: stable design / production (Scorpène-class submarine)


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-New Defence White Paper fails to address Australia's core security needs
-2009 Defence White Paper Fantasy
-Analysing "The ADF Air Combat Capability- On the Record"
-Find out who is responsible for the Air Warfare Destroyer mess
-Analysis of Defence Materiel Organisation Major Projects Management and What Needs to be Fixed
-New DMO Boss warns the staff that business as usual is over
-How dangerous is the Defence Material Organisation to our Defence Industry?
-Australia's Failing Defence Structure and Management Methodology
-More on the dud-jamming gear Defence wants to buy
-ADF cost per flying hour
-I will wipe out bullying vows new Defence chief (Houston 2005)
-Vacancy
-Put Vol 2 Report of DLA Piper Review into the light of day
-Rory and Jim
-Parasitism as an Abstraction for Organizational Dysfunctions
-Hobart-class "Air Warfare Destroyer" to be fielded with obsolete radar guidance technology
-The Decay Of Critical Military Thinking And Writing-With Particular Reference To The RAAF
-Newspaper guy gets it right about sub project.... big time
-The great M-1 tank myth
-*UPDATE* Fear and loathing in Canberra - Audit released on MRH-90 helicopter project 
-RAN bullies contractor over Collins sub replacement
-2014-15 ADF budget shocker - Star-ranks
-Air Warfare Destroyer -- Billions, not millions over budget
-Australia's M-1 tanks are... a downgrade compared to what it had
-Weak links put on rubber-stamp Defence panel
-Stop the nonsense (Collins-class submarine replacement)
-Insert Joke Here
-Tyranny of distance--Long, drawn out helicopter projects are unsustainable
-2014-15 ADF budget shocker - cost per flying hour over the last budget year
-Tiger savaged by Navy League of Australia
-Tiger helicopter update
-Overview of corruption in Australia

Cartoon time-steerable AESA on Typhoon

The Typhoon is an extreme performance aircraft.

Its infra-red search and track (IRST) can detect F-22s.

I hope the steerable AESA in this video becomes very successful.

The music sucks. Not surprised there.


.

Roll away

Big news!!!

LOL


Those costs do not include engine prices.

The roll-away price. Desperate news plugging.

Also not counted?  Long-lead. Engineering changes, and a bunch of other stuff.

You can look and see what USAF pays to get an F-35A into the squadron (Weapon system unit costs). (PDF file)

USAF hasn't done well at predicting prices in the past. Maybe now those predictions will get a little better?


Overall, US forces will receive 19 F-35As for the Air Force, six F-35Bs for the Marine Corps and four F-35C models, three for the US Navy and one for the Marines. In addition, the contract covers the first two F-35As for Israel, the first four F-35As for Japan, two additional F-35As for Norway and two F-35As for Italy.


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We don't need thousands of F-35s

Reader comments -- AC's Rate of Climb

Update: Acquisition Malpractice

JSF Partner Nations lose more workshare dollars

USMC F-35 pilots won't fly much

F-35 production increases are not justified




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-Time's Battleland - 5 Part series on F-35 procurement - 2013 
-Summary of Air Power Australia F-35 points
-Bill Sweetman, Aviation Week and the F-35
-U.S. Government Accounting Office (GAO) F-35 reports
-F-35 JSF: Cold War Anachronism Without a Mission
-History of F-35 Production Cuts
-Looking at the three Japan contenders (maneuverability)
-How the Canadian DND misleads the public about the F-35
-Value of STOVL F-35B over-hyped
-Cuckoo in the nest--U.S. DOD DOT&E F-35 report is out
-6 Feb 2012 Letter from SASC to DOD boss Panetta questioning the decision to lift probation on the F-35B STOVL.
-USAFs F-35 procurement plan is not believable
-December 2011 Australia/Canada Brief
-F-35 Key Performance Perimeters (KPP) and Feb 2012 CRS report
-F-35 DOD Select Acquisition Report (SAR) FY2012
-Release of F-35 2012 test report card shows continued waste on a dud program
-Australian Defence answers serious F-35 project concerns with "so what?"
-Land of the Lost (production cut history update March 2013)
-Outgoing LM F-35 program boss admits to flawed weight assumptions (March 2013)
-A look at the F-35 program's astro-turfing
-F-35 and F-16 cost per flying hour
-Is this aircraft worth over $51B of USMC tac-air funding?
-Combat radius and altitude, A model
-F-35A, noise abatement and airfields and the USAF
-Deceptive marketing practice: F-35 blocks
-The concurrency fraud
-The dung beetle's "it's known" lie
-F-35's air-to-air ability limited
-F-35 Blocks--2006 and today
-The F-35B design is leaking fuel
-F-35 deliveries
-ADF's wacky F-35 assumptions
-Gauging performance, the 2008 F-35, Davis dream brief
-Aboriginal brought out as a prop
-Super Kendall's F-35 problem
-LM sales force in pre-Internet era
-History of F-35 engine problems
-Compare
-JSF hopes and dreams...early days of the Ponzi Scheme
-The Prognostics
-2002--Australia joins the F-35 program

Friday, November 21, 2014

Crumbs

Crumbs.

H/T- Johnno

We don't need thousands of F-35s

(It's a trap. We don't need thousands of F-35s.)

Even if they work somehow, we don't need that many F-35s.

The F-35 isn't likely to have much operational value except for show.

A façade.

And that assumes it works to specification.

The U.S. DOD does not need thousands of this aircraft.

How many combat-coded F-35s do all services need? Note, this does not include aircraft used for training, currently going through refurbishment, attrition and testing.

Somewhere between 860 and 1180 combat-coded F-35s is about all we "need".

If the USN wants to run mixed squadrons on the aircraft carrier deck, with about 6 aircraft carriers available, 160 F-35Cs should be enough. And this is even going with a bigger USN squadron (akin to USMC). 10 Squadrons of 16 aircraft each. 1 squadron per carrier deployment.

If the USN was to go with 3 active F-35C squadrons on the aircraft carrier deck for deployment and no Super Hornet? 480 F-35Cs, 30 squadrons with 16 aircraft each.

If anyone cares, my F-35C idea is somewhere in between.

How many USMC F-35B models? 160. 10 squadrons of 16 each.

USAF. 20 air air defense locations around the U.S. 20 squadrons, 18 aircraft each, for 360.

10 Air Expeditionary Force Squadrons; for 180 aircraft.

Total USAF combat coded aircraft: 540.

USN plan 1: 860 combat-coded F-35s DOD-wide.
USN plan 2: 1180 combat-coded F-35s DOD-wide.

You can multiply those totals by about 1.3 to get your training, aircraft currently in refurb, Test-dev and combat-coded aircraft as a grand total for this military aviation Ponzi scheme.

I think that is a solid (and generous) requirement for an aircraft that will likely get shot down vs. emerging threats and suffer significant costs to own and operate.

(OK, hand over your money. All of it.)

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-Time's Battleland - 5 Part series on F-35 procurement - 2013 
-Summary of Air Power Australia F-35 points
-Bill Sweetman, Aviation Week and the F-35
-U.S. Government Accounting Office (GAO) F-35 reports
-F-35 JSF: Cold War Anachronism Without a Mission
-History of F-35 Production Cuts
-Looking at the three Japan contenders (maneuverability)
-How the Canadian DND misleads the public about the F-35
-Value of STOVL F-35B over-hyped
-Cuckoo in the nest--U.S. DOD DOT&E F-35 report is out
-6 Feb 2012 Letter from SASC to DOD boss Panetta questioning the decision to lift probation on the F-35B STOVL.
-USAFs F-35 procurement plan is not believable
-December 2011 Australia/Canada Brief
-F-35 Key Performance Perimeters (KPP) and Feb 2012 CRS report
-F-35 DOD Select Acquisition Report (SAR) FY2012
-Release of F-35 2012 test report card shows continued waste on a dud program
-Australian Defence answers serious F-35 project concerns with "so what?"
-Land of the Lost (production cut history update March 2013)
-Outgoing LM F-35 program boss admits to flawed weight assumptions (March 2013)
-A look at the F-35 program's astro-turfing
-F-35 and F-16 cost per flying hour
-Is this aircraft worth over $51B of USMC tac-air funding?
-Combat radius and altitude, A model
-F-35A, noise abatement and airfields and the USAF
-Deceptive marketing practice: F-35 blocks
-The concurrency fraud
-The dung beetle's "it's known" lie
-F-35's air-to-air ability limited
-F-35 Blocks--2006 and today
-The F-35B design is leaking fuel
-F-35 deliveries
-ADF's wacky F-35 assumptions
-Gauging performance, the 2008 F-35, Davis dream brief
-Aboriginal brought out as a prop
-Super Kendall's F-35 problem
-LM sales force in pre-Internet era
-History of F-35 engine problems
-Compare
-JSF hopes and dreams...early days of the Ponzi Scheme
-The Prognostics
-2002--Australia joins the F-35 program

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Best to start some QF-35 conversion contracts

The F-35 is not a solution. For...anything.

Facing this new challenge, the official suggested those who question the need for the F-35 to rethink their logic. "They may be complex, expensive and still immature, but they are a quantum leap over every other fighter in our arsenal," said he. Believing that China will eventually make the J-20 and J-31 into perfect stealth fighters, the official suggested the United States to learn from China's commitment to upgrading its military technology.

Rethink F-35? Well, not from my point of view. J-20/J31 perfect? Cut down on your model airplane glue intake. And, go back and try and understand the definition of "quantum leap". The unnamed "official" is an idiot.

NGJ update.

Mid-band? Cool. Sling it under some of those early F-22s that will never be combat-coded as we think of that term today...

Raytheon successfully tests US Navy's next-gen radar jammer



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USAF blamed for scrubbed BAE KF-16 contract

That deal that went real bad.

BAE could have done the work without those extra costs, the former employee argued, but the Air Force insisted — and in doing so, greatly upset Korean acquisition officials who felt they were being taken advantage of.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Off the deep end

Here is another sample from one of the local Defence scribblers.

Few people in Australia—and I suspect the same is true in the United States—realise just how annoying this sort of behaviour is to a proud and sovereign country such as Indonesia. As a former Defence Minister put it to me, speaking figuratively, several years ago: ‘imagine the reaction if we had an aircraft carrier and used the right of free passage to sail through the Great Lakes and anchor off Chicago?’ But who knows—maybe someday an emerging naval power will do just that.

The reasons why the Chinese Navy, the PLA(N), might wish to have greater visibility in and around Australia are varied. Firstly, China has a great interest in the Antarctic, of which Australia administers a disproportionately large amount. Secondly, China has small ethnic communities amongst many South Pacific nations and also tries to curry political favor with these same countries—it’s always handy to have extra votes in the UN for little cost. Thirdly, the PLA(N) might wish to deploy down here using the same logic sometimes applied by the USN: because it can.

Hey, why not? They are only harmless communists.

NASDAQ F-35 fail

Here it is...




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-Time's Battleland - 5 Part series on F-35 procurement - 2013 
-Summary of Air Power Australia F-35 points
-Bill Sweetman, Aviation Week and the F-35
-U.S. Government Accounting Office (GAO) F-35 reports
-F-35 JSF: Cold War Anachronism Without a Mission
-History of F-35 Production Cuts
-Looking at the three Japan contenders (maneuverability)
-How the Canadian DND misleads the public about the F-35
-Value of STOVL F-35B over-hyped
-Cuckoo in the nest--U.S. DOD DOT&E F-35 report is out
-6 Feb 2012 Letter from SASC to DOD boss Panetta questioning the decision to lift probation on the F-35B STOVL.
-USAFs F-35 procurement plan is not believable
-December 2011 Australia/Canada Brief
-F-35 Key Performance Perimeters (KPP) and Feb 2012 CRS report
-F-35 DOD Select Acquisition Report (SAR) FY2012
-Release of F-35 2012 test report card shows continued waste on a dud program
-Australian Defence answers serious F-35 project concerns with "so what?"
-Land of the Lost (production cut history update March 2013)
-Outgoing LM F-35 program boss admits to flawed weight assumptions (March 2013)
-A look at the F-35 program's astro-turfing
-F-35 and F-16 cost per flying hour
-Is this aircraft worth over $51B of USMC tac-air funding?
-Combat radius and altitude, A model
-F-35A, noise abatement and airfields and the USAF
-Deceptive marketing practice: F-35 blocks
-The concurrency fraud
-The dung beetle's "it's known" lie
-F-35's air-to-air ability limited
-F-35 Blocks--2006 and today
-The F-35B design is leaking fuel
-F-35 deliveries
-ADF's wacky F-35 assumptions
-Gauging performance, the 2008 F-35, Davis dream brief
-Aboriginal brought out as a prop
-Super Kendall's F-35 problem
-LM sales force in pre-Internet era
-History of F-35 engine problems
-Compare
-JSF hopes and dreams...early days of the Ponzi Scheme
-The Prognostics
-2002--Australia joins the F-35 program

Under-estimating the PLA is a mistake

You can have a report with a fancy name and alleged cache, but to say that Chinese weapons are 20 years behind and not up to the challenge just doesn't appear true.

This is a good read from Kokota (PDF) but I wouldn't under-estimate an adversary that can produce reasonably good weapons...

...in large numbers.

Consider these:

Chinese Military Cargo Aircraft via Chinese Military Review Blog.

So how good is the Chinese VT-4 Main Battle Tank?

Chinese IFVs & Mobile Guns...

Chinese Fire Support Frigate (Rocket).

Chinese Air Force trains in Russia.

J-31 arrives at big Chinese Air Show.

Norinco AH-4 155mm Light-weight Howitzer, AKA Chinese M777 via Chinese Defense Blog.

Z-10 Fierce Thunderbolt via China Military Review...

PLA NLOS "Sino-Spike" ATGM Vehicle...

United Arab Emirates ordered 150 VP11 4x4 MRAP vehicles to Chinese Defense Company NORINCO.

Chicom arms video shows parity and in some cases, superiority

PLA-AF Airborne Early Warning & Control Programs

PLA Air Defence Radars

PLA Mechanised Infantry Division Air Defence Systems-PLA Point Defence Systems

PLA Area Defence Missile Systems

PLA Air to Air Missiles

Russian / PLA Low Band Surveillance Radars (Counter Low Observable Technology Radars)

PLA Cruise Missiles--PLA Air - Surface Missiles

PLA Guided Bombs